Lev Virine and Michael Trumper in their book, Project Decisions: The Art and Science, suggest, "Project managers should steer clear of making decisions based on gut feelings because the intrinsic psychological concepts that motivate that type of behavior can often lead to costly mistakes."
I have to agree. It doesn’t matter who you are, trusting your gut can be dangerous. Anecdotally, it might seem like you can make quick and successful decisions based upon your superior gut, but statistically, it’s about the same as tossing a coin.
According to Trumper, "Human thoughts tend to be biased, influenced by certain behaviors, perceptions, and the ability to recall details. We are predisposed to rely on certain variables when making decisions, like the manner in which information is presented to us, and we also lean toward the belief that scenarios with greater detail are more probable." He suggests, "We’re much better at making small decisions. ‘I’m hungry, should I get a bagel or a hot dog?’"
As the consequences of decisions become more complicated, your gut becomes more unreliable. This doesn’t sound too good for managers, executives, and even project managers who believe their gut instincts are what sets them apart as great decisions makers, does it? Of course, it’s possible that your gut could be a statistical anomaly, but according to Trumper and Virine, "Most of the problems in projects are related to human error caused by predictable mistakes. Decision analysis is a structured process through which we could be able to make better decisions, with less biased input from humans."
A structured approach to decision-making provides a better model for making good decisions, however some people make a lot of really good decisions—but not when they involve big and complex projects.
"If NASA blows $1 billion dollars, that’s money coming out of your taxes. If Ford makes a bad decision that causes them some direct cost through liability, that costs us money. That’s why having these processes in these big corporations is really important, because the cost of bad decisions is incredible and a huge burden on the economy," write the authors.
In light of the last couple of years and our current economic situation, it’s not hard to recognize that a lot of bad, and expensive, decisions have been made by corporations and governments.
My advice, leave your gut to making decisions about what to eat for lunch.
Hi Ty I did take this view, that cognitive decision-making was best, until I read Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink. In it he says instinctive decision-making comes from our sub-conscious and is based on past experiences that we can’t easily tap into on a conscious level. Since then I’ve found myself trusting both my gut and my intellect. The trouble with logical decision-making is that it can be too reliant of consensus and is time consuming, plus lots of the factors we need to base decisions on are subjective themselves, because they are all about people. Regards, Jo Ann
Jo Ann, Thanks for contributing to the dialog. I think it all depends on the type of decision and the complexity of the process. Although I agree that some people “seem” to be better at instinctively making good decisions, the science doesn’t support Gladwell’s assertions for complex decisions with a lot of variables. I do agree that a little bit of “gut” instinct will help sift through and draw conclusions from what the data might be implying_